Nouriel Roubini

The U.S. economic recovery is gathering momentum, and Roubini illustrates the pros and cons as well as the outlook. The positives include the recovery of housing after its deep contraction, the shale gas and oil revolution, monetary accommodation by the Fed, the strong profits of corporate firms, the re-shoring of some manufacturing, stronger consumer, business and investor confidence, the rise of the stock market and of other risk markets, greater job creation and entrepreneurial dynamism. The negatives include policy gridlock and uncertainty, regulatory uncertainty and the effects of Obamacare, the variety of fiscal issues that the US needs to address (debt ceiling, medium term fiscal consolidation, fundamental tax reform, entitlements reform), the still ongoing process of deleveraging of the private and public sector; and tail risks from the global economy (EZ crisis worsening, risk of Chinese hard landing, geopolitical tensions impacting oil prices).